Essex, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

752
FXUS65 KVEF 212329
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
329 PM PST Sun Dec 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Gusty winds are expected across the Sierra and Owens Valley today
  with breezy conditions elsewhere.

* Widespread rainfall with isolated flash flooding, snow at the high
  elevations, and gusty winds will impact Christmas travel.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through next Sunday. Midday satellite loop showed
broken high clouds over most of our CWA, with the greatest coverage
and thickness over the northern half of the CWA thanks to mountain
enhancement. Surface obs showed unseasonably warm temps with light
winds in the valleys, breezy conditions in more exposed terrain, and
stronger winds in higher elevations such as the Sierra Nevada and
the Spring Mountains.

The gusty winds will be the first topic. The strongest winds thus
far have been on the eastern slopes of the Sierra, so the Wind
Advisory there is in good shape. Farther down into the Owens Valley,
stronger winds had been much more spotty, as is typical. Rotor
clouds were visible on satellite, suggesting potential still exists
for strong winds making it down into the west side of the Owens
Valley.

The second and more impactful concern will be an atmospheric river
which will bring widespread rain on Christmas Eve day. AR currently
slamming NorCal will pivot to more of a SW-NE orientation as the
flow over the eastern Pacific buckles in response to northerly jet
streaks along 150W carving out a trough along 135W. By Tuesday
evening/night, as the jet rounds the base of the trough and comes
inland, precip chances will increase in our western zones, spreading
east across the rest of the CWA on Christmas Eve day. Although it is
a bit early to try to pinpoint the location and amount of the
heaviest rain, the mountains will be favored for very heavy rain,
especially on southwest-facing slopes, as snow levels will start out
between 7000 and 10,000 feet due to the warm origins of the AR. The
most likely time for heavy rain looks like Christmas Eve day, so if
you`re planning to travel into or out of the Desert Southwest and
can travel on Tuesday instead of Christmas Eve, that will improve
your odds of a safe trip. For Christmas Day and beyond, the models
diverge on whether the main trough moves inland or sits offshore and
reloads. Either way, snow levels should come down on Christmas Day,
but the position of the trough will determine how much snow actually
falls in the mountains and how much additional rain may fall in the
deserts. If the trough swings inland, quieter weather would likely
return next weekend, but if the trough sits offshore, there could be
multiple periods of rain through (and beyond) next weekend.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package... Winds
have remained very light in the Las Vegas Valley this afternoon,
indicating that we did not mix out today. It is likely that winds
remain light through the TAF period, though there is a 20 percent
chance that we mix out before sunset, resulting in an isolated gust
between 10 and 15 kts from the south-southeast. SCT-BKN aoa 15 kft
this evening, increasing to 20 kft on Monday.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona and
southeastern California...For the 00Z Forecast Package... Gusts
between 40 and 50 kts have been observed on the northwestern side of
the Owens Valley today, which have resulted in rotor cloud
development. KBIH has remained light, but cannot rule out an
isolated gust from the west around 20 kts before sunset. Otherwise,
expect winds to remain generally light and diurnal at remaining TAF
sites. SCT-BKN aoa 15 kft.
&&


.CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high
temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 3 degrees of
the daily record through Monday.

The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the
year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records
are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

MAX            SUN, DEC 21  MON, DEC 22
               Record(Yr)   Record(Yr)

Las Vegas      68(2023)*    75(2014)
Bishop         70(2018)*    74(2014)
Needles        75(2005)*    74(2020)*
Daggett        76(2018)*    78(1955)
Kingman        73(1917)     72(1906)*
Desert Rock    70(2020)*    70(2014)*
Death Valley   81(1999)     82(1914)

The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature and
the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which
records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

WARM MIN       SUN, DEC 21  MON, DEC 22
               Record(Yr)   Record(Yr)

Las Vegas      53(2023)*    50(2024)*
Bishop         40(2023)*    39(2014)
Needles        58(2010)     60(1904)
Daggett        53(1981)*    59(1955)
Kingman        51(1904)     46(2005)*
Desert Rock    44(2010)*    44(1994)*
Death Valley   60(1914)     70(1914)
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Morgan
AVIATION...Soulat

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