Essex, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

174
FXUS65 KVEF 190934
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
134 AM PST Fri Dec 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Unsettled conditions expected in our far northwestern areas
  through Monday, though any impacts should be minor.

* Dry and mild conditions prevail across the rest of the area with
  breezy afternoons over the southern Mojave Desert.

* The chance of rain, snow, and wind impacts around Christmastime
  continues to increase.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Christmas Day.

A shortwave trough passing through the PacNW today will kick up
strong winds in the Sierra, with a 75% chance of 60+ mph gusts. As a
result, a Wind Advisory has been issued for our Sierra zone from 7AM
this morning through 4AM Saturday. Down in the Owens Valley, breezes
should be more in the 20-35 mph range, but a few gusts of 40-45 mph
cannot be ruled out (25%). The aforementioned shortwave will also
direct a plume of moisture into the central Sierra Saturday -
Monday. The mountain range will intercept the majority of
precipitation, with up to 1.50" of liquid equivalent at the crest.
However, snow levels are forecast to be 9-10 kft throughout the
event, so the potential for winter impacts is limited. In the
northern Owens Valley, there is a 25% chance of seeing more than
0.10" of rain during this time period.

Elsewhere, dry conditions prevail as precipitation chances stay
below 10% through Monday. High temperatures will continue to run 10-
15 degrees above normal. Breezy afternoons are expected across the
southern Mojave Desert, with gusts 15-25 mph likely (70%) along the
I-15 and I-40 corridors south of Las Vegas.

Models continue to hone in on an impactful system around
Christmastime. Latest guidance has precipitation chances moving in
as early as Tuesday and sticking around through Christmas day.
Forecast PWAT and IVT values are near the max of December
climatology, so moisture will not be a limiting factor. The record
December PWAT value in Vegas is 1.00" set in early December 2014.
Looking back at that date, Vegas only got 0.16" which is a nice rain
but nothing crazy (not even in the top 50 wettest December days).
This is a nice reminder that moisture is only part of the rainfall
equation. Forcing (lifting mechanism) is crucial as well and the
strength, track, and timing of the forcing with the upcoming system
remains uncertain. Mountains benefit from the ever-present forcing
that is orographic lift, and will almost certainly fair well with
this system due to the strong moisture flux. The biggest question
for our mountain locations is snow level. With deep moisture often
comes a deep layer of warm air. Looking back at the early December
2014 event, Mt. Charleston (town) received nearly 2.00" of rain and
ZERO snow. This could very well be the same scenario here, as
forecast snow levels range from 6.5-7.5kft in our northwestern areas
to 9-10kft in our southeastern locations. We`re still over 5 days
out from the bulk of the precipitation so things can, and will,
change. But the key takeaways should be that weather impacts are
growing more likely around the holiday. Those with travel plans
should be prepared for wet conditions on most roads and wintry
weather above 7-8kft.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Winds
will generally remain light and variable through Friday, but may
prevail at times out of the northeast to east from late morning
through afternoon. There is a low chance for elevated south or
southwest wind Friday evening after 00Z, but most likely will
continue to see typical southwest winds under 8KT. VFR conditions
will prevail, with periods of high clouds at or above 20KFT.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Winds across much of the
region will follow typical wind patterns with speeds generally 10
knots or less. KBIH is expected to be light northwest in the
morning, but become gusty at times out of the north to around 20
knots between 18-23Z, then settling back to around 10 knots in the
evening. VFR conditions will prevail through tonight, as bands of
high clouds stream over the region, with bases remaining at or above
15kft AGL.
&&

.CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high
temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 3 degrees of
the daily record for Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.

The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the
year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records
are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

MAX            FRI, DEC 19  SAT, DEC 20  SUN, DEC 21
               Record(Yr)   Record(Yr)   Record(Yr)

Las Vegas      68(2024)*    73(1981)     68(2023)*
Bishop         69(1985)*    71(1972)     70(2018)
Needles        76(2024)*    76(1981)*    75(2005)*
Daggett        76(1950)*    78(1981)     76(2018)*
Kingman        76(1917)     74(1917)     73(1917)
Desert Rock    69(2024)     69(2020)     70(2020)
Death Valley   75(1950)     79(1999)     81(1999)

The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature and
the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which
records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

WARM MIN       FRI, DEC 19  SAT, DEC 20  SUN, DEC 21
               Record(Yr)   Record(Yr)   Record(Yr)

Las Vegas      55(2010)     50(2010)*    53(2023)*
Bishop         48(1999)     42(1981)     40(2023)
Needles        58(2010)     61(1901)     58(2010)
Daggett        48(1980)*    52(1981)*    53(1981)*
Kingman        49(2010)*    51(2010)     51(1904)
Desert Rock    50(2010)     45(2010)*    44(2010)*
Death Valley   56(1914)     65(1999)     60(1914)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/CLIMATE...Woods
AVIATION...Gorelow


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